| Abstract:In the risk assessment of coal mine roof accident, the scenarios of coupled risk factors are considered too little and it is difficult to quantitatively express the probability of risk occurrence. For this, a WSR-TSS model based on Wuli-Shili-Renli (WSR) and theory of scenario structuring (TSS) is constructed, which provides a new approach for roof accident risk assessment. Firstly, the risk identification framework of coal mine roof accidents is constructed from physical, administrative and human layers, in which, 6 physical factors, 2 rational factors and 4 human factors were identified respectively. Secondly, 44 two-dimensional risk scenarios and 48 three-dimensional risk scenarios are established with coupling of risk factors based on TSS. Finally, the WSR-TSS model is applied to the risk assessment of a roof accident in a coal mine. The result is that the coupling risk of roof breakage and safety awareness is the largest in the two-dimensional risk scenario, with a risk value of 0.598, and the coupling risk rate of roof breakage, support methods and safety awareness in the three-dimensional risk scenario is the highest, with a risk value of 0.423 1. The results show that the WSR-TSS model can comprehensively identify the risk factors of coal mine roof accidents, consider the scenarios of coupled risk factors and quantify them, and provide new ideas and reference for risk assessment of coal mine roof accidents. |
